Population and Food Production
Thanks to Russell Hopfenberg, Ph.D. of Duke University, for the following essay which discusses Dr. Hopfenberg's thesis on the relationship of. The effect of population growth on efficiency in food production is expected to increase by around billion people between now and In this blog post, I will be discussing the topic of population, and specifically the relationship between population growth and food supply.
Agriculture has three main variables that need to be studied: Since population and production are long term problems, distribution problems should be addressed immediately. Trade has become a controversial response to solve distribution problems. Scholars argue that trade allows regions with agricultural surpluses to transfer their excess food to regions with agriculture deficits, thus bringing an equilibrium to global production.
Developed countries have high levels of food exports, while less developed countries import most of their food supply. Their results showed that greater democracy is associated with lower agricultural efficiency, which implies that an interest group is taking control over agricultural process Lio and Liu, The consensus among scholars suggests that economic growth directly affects agriculture production. Jenkins and Scalan argue that an increase in economic growth—measured as increases in GDP—has a positive relationship with the daily intake of calories of children in developing countries.
This suggests that development structures and economic policies affect food supply more than increases in agricultural production. McDonald argues that regions with higher population will present a negative relationship with agriculture production. Developing regions will present higher population growth rates and lower agriculture production growth rates and developed nations will present an inverse relationship Pimentel, An increase in population growth will decrease agriculture production.
Neo-Malthusians predict a difference between developing regions: Africa, Asia and Latin America; and developed regions: Europe, North America and Oceania.
The Relationship between Population Growth and Food Supply | marinaecology
Recent trends show that sinceagricultural output has declined in Oceania, Europe and North America Magdoff and Tokar, On the other hand, Asian regions experienced an increase in their agriculture production, particularly because of increases in use of fertilizers and genetically modified crops. The effect of population growth on agriculture production varies across regions. Research Design Based upon this background, population growth will be a significant determinant of agricultural production.
To explain this relationship I use a cross-sectional time-series data from to Consistent with literature I incorporate the control variables of GDP per capita as a measure of economic growth Jenkins and Scalan,agricultural land Kendall and Pimentel,agricultural imports Kellogs et al.
The population of interest is countries-years, classified by the following UN continental regions: The study looks at countries during the past twenty-six years using an ordinary least square regression OLSmeeting the required assumptions. First, the independent variables and control variables are non-random selected.
Secondly, I assume that the independent variables and control variables are linearly independent. To avoid multi-collinearity among of control variables, the continental region of Oceania was dropped. Third, I assume normality and no correlation for all variables. The baseline model examines the relationship between agriculture production growth and population growth, taking in consideration GDP per capita, agriculture material imports, agricultural land and the political stability as control variables.
It also incorporates dummy variables for regional classification. The second model uses all the variables, excluding regional classifications. The third model drops the Polity score variable from the regression.
Finally, the fourth model analyzes population growth and regional classification. The primary regression model used for this study is: It refers to the net output by means of cultivation of crops and livestock production.
This number was obtained from the World Development Indicators and measures the annual change of agriculture production vs. It is based on the de facto definition of population, which includes all the residents regardless of legal status or citizenship. GDP per capita changes measures the economic development —an approximation of the value of goods produced per person-in all the countries included in the model.
Agricultural land —measured in sq. This number was computed using the World Development Indicators dataset. I also introduced dummy variables to determine the regional classification -Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, North America and Oceania- for each country. During the regression analysis, one of the variables was dropped, which leaves five regions: Results and Analysis Table 1 includes the summary of the regression for the all models.Food Production and Population Growth - Part 1
Model 1 shows the coefficient estimates on agriculture production growth in all regions, including all the control variables: The adjusted R2 for most models is 0. Why this growing inequality? They have too little money to buy food that is traded internationally so they cannot drive up its price hence the prices fell over In effect, the poor masses are economically invisible.
List 4 potential consequences of increasing the income divide between rich and poor? Why should poorer countries not be expected to undergo a demographic fertility transition? No one really understands the fertility transition. No one has been able to identify the precise conditions that lead to it, or predict the date of onset and the rate of passage. However, there are some factors that would appear to favour a demographic transition to lower fertility levels in developing nations: Family planning is no longer unmentionable.
Religious doctrine in developing countries does not oppose family planning. Advances in contraception offer people wider choices, improved reliability and greater convenience. Visibly improved infant survival favors more rapid acceptance of family planning.
More governments are recognising that rapid population growth renders economic progress more difficult. Future Human Population Growth Predictions of future human population growth appear to be highly dependent upon fertility rates, particularly those in developing nations. For the yearthe United Nations low, medium and high projected population sizes are 4. The instant-replacement projection gives 8.
If the fertility rates in developing countries remains unchanged, there is predicted to be more than billion people by Note that only 1. Life expectancies have improved in developed countries, due to improved healthcare, drugs etc Estimates of how many people the Earth can support can vary widely, and several estimates may be provided by the same authors or organization. Considering only the highest number of a range of estimates provided by an author, and including all single estimates, the median of 65 upper bounds on the size of the human population was 12 billion.
Food production and population growth.
If the lowest number is used when an author provided a range of estimates, and all other point estimates are included, the median of 65 estimated bounds on how many people the earth can support was 7. A survey of the estimated limits is no proof that limits lie in this range. It is merely a warning that the human population is entering a zone where limits on the human carrying capacity of Earth have been anticipated and may be encountered.
Future scenarios of population structure 1.